Bitcoin 'death cross' data hints 43% drop due in BTC price bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) may fall more than 40% from last week's bottom, new data warns as one analyst confronts what he says is now a bear market.

In a series of tweets on May 20, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD should dive to near $20,000 to conform to historical norms.

Much debate has surrounded so-called "death cross" constructions on the Bitcoin chart. These involve the declining 50-period moving average (50MA) crossing under the 200MA.

Often in the past, such an event has triggered considerable price downside, this then going on to mark what Rekt Capital calls "generational bottoms."

"More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to retrace depth post-Death Cross," he summarized

Both March 2020 and May 2021 broke the rules when it comes to post-death cross losses, however — in both instances, the death cross itself marked the bottom.

In January 2022, the historical trend seemed to return, as a death cross event came after BTC/USD had already declined 43% from its November 2021 all-time highs of $69,000. 

"What's interesting about the scenario of a -43% post-Death Cross crash however is that it would result in a $22000 BTC," the concluding tweet read, alongside a chart highlighting key return on investment (ROI) opportunities during generational bottoms.

Elsewhere, fellow analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, said the time had come to admit that Bitcoin is in a bear market.

In his latest market update on May 20, Filbfilb flagged the one-year MA as the key level to regain in order to exit the quagmire which resulted after losing it as support in early April.

"Ultimately we continue to sit in a bear market. This has been the case since price retreated away from the 1yr moving average which we highlighted as a key risk [...] when price got rejected off that level," he wrote.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. 

Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.





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